Tropical disturbance bringing rain to Florida – 104.5 WOKV

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REMEMBER ON THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE: Tape on windows is *NOT* helpful and will not prevent glass from shattering.

Realize that the forecast cone (“cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given period – up to 5 days – and *does not indicate* the width of the storm and/or damage that could occur.

A tropical wave that hit the African coast last week has made its way to Florida. while combining with an upper depression (TUTT – ‘tropical upper tropospheric thalweg’). Little surface development is expected, but consider:

(1) a slight increase in heavy for Florida and the Bahamas through Sunday

(2) it’s a ‘shoot through the arc’ as tropical waves continue to march west from Africa. It is only a matter of time before conditions favor the tropical development of one or more of these waves. No real tropical development is planned across the Atlantic for the moment but the active African waves will have to be monitored.

South Fl. Water Management District:

Wind shear:

The location of the development of tropical systems in July since 1851 generally favors the northwest Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the extreme western Atlantic:

The Saharan dust spreads every year towards the west from Africa by the prevailing winds (east to west over the Atlantic). Air dry – yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can hamper the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “waiting to be” waves will simply wait to get to the other side of – or away from – the plume, and then try to grow if other conditions are right. In my opinion, there is far too much talk about the presence of Saharan dust and its link to tropical cyclones. In any case, several large dust plumes spread west towards the Caribbean and the Gulf with the Saharan dust peak generally in June and July.

2022 names….. “Danielle” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are drawn by the World Meteorological Organization…repeat every 6 years). Historical storms are removed [Florence & Michael in ’18… Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” and “Ivan” removed from the 2004 list (all affected in Florida) and “Matthew” was removed in 2016. WMO decided – as of last year – that the Greek alphabet will no longer be used and that there will instead be an additional list of names if the first list is exhausted (this did not happen). produced only three times – 2005, 2020 and 2021). Tropical cyclone naming began consistently in 1953. Learn more about the history of tropical cyclone naming* here *.

Eastern Atlantic:

Middle and upper wind shear analysis (enemy of tropical cyclones) (CIMMS). Red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imaging (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep ocean heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean and deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temperature anomalies:

US US surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Gulf surface analysis:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Wave period forecasts in the Atlantic Basin for 24, 48 and 72 hours respectively:

The Eastern Pacific:

“Darby” formed on Sunday and quickly escalated into chat. 4 Hurricane moving west over open water but not threatening land. Darby will steadily weaken to a tropical depression and then a post-tropical depression as it is led by trade winds that remain well south of Hawaii through the weekend.

Estelle formed over the Eastern Pacific and will be a formidable hurricane but far from any land area:

western pacific Satellite IR:

Global tropical activity:

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