Theater of the ongoing Cold War 2.0 and possibly World War III? – Analysis – Eurasia Review
The escalation of China’s military belligerence in 2021 from Taiwan to India’s Himalayan borders with China’s occupied Tibet confirms the question I asked as early as April 2001 after Chinese fighter jets damaged the plane surveillance aircraft EP3 and forced it to land on the Chinese island of Hainan. My article of April 9, 2001, published by the South Asia Analysis Group questioned the motivations of China under the title “Is China generating a second cold war?” “.
It is relevant to quote in this document my main observation: “It is symptomatic of the Chinese team spirit on display and suggests that even if China cannot opt for an armed conflict with the United States it will, however, continue to employ team spirit, continue to confront the United States strategically, and exhaust the United States’ resolve to continue to engage in the defense and security of the Asia-Pacific. and Taiwan in particular. “
In 2021, China’s military tactics against the United States. Japan, India and the South China Sea have reached unprecedented high and provocative levels that should be a “wake-up call” for political leaders and military planners in Washington and all the capitals of Indo- Peaceful. This stems from a simple strategic logic according to which any major armed conflict between China and the United States will leave no room for any “closing session” by the Asian capitals, in particular the ASEAN capitals.
China reached this savage stage of “global threat” through acts of omission and commission of the geopolitical and strategic policies of the United States during the first two decades of the 21st.st Century. The United States was grossly oblivious to China’s military build-up in the decade up to 2010, militarily distracted by its “wars of choice” in Iraq and Afghanistan. China, without any checkmate of the United States, has built its formidable military machine, especially the navy, missile force, and force projection forces.
It was not until around 2015 that the United States realized the importance of its neglect in the Indo-Pacific, which allowed China to become the “main challenge” for global security and influence. the United States. Put simply, in 2021, China, so powerful, feels militarily powerful to become a rival superpower with the United States.
This national impetus from China has received a “booster shot” with Chinese President Xi Jinping assuming complete control of all military levers of power in China. It also matched his grandiose “Great China Dream”.
China’s marked rise on the military escalation ladder has accelerated under what appears to be the megalomaniacal leadership of President Xi Jinping where China is in conflict on all of its peripheries, from Taiwan to India.
Without a doubt, China has therefore enveloped Indo-Pacific Asia in Cold War 2.0 cover and the portents in 2021 seriously point to a possible World War III if China does not push the bank to the brink of its own. voluntarily or forced by the growing anti-China coalitions by US-led QUAD and AUKUS.
The Indo-Pacific theater in 2021 has therefore already emerged as the theater of the third cold war in progress. It should also be noted that if the Cold War 1.0 ended in 1991 with the dissolution of the former Soviet Union and the dismantling of the Warsaw Pact forces against NATO forces in Central Europe, the Cold War 1.0 s is continued in Asia-Pacific.
Communist China replaced the former Soviet Union as the main protagonist of Asia-Pacific, now Indo-Pacific. Unlike Central Europe where the confrontation between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces manifested itself in lines of fortifications frozen on the rolling plains of Central Europe, this visibility in the Indo-Pacific is denied by geography because today’s confrontations between China and the United States and its allies are primarily in the seas of the Western Pacific, and more particularly in the hotly contested South China Sea.
In terms of the makeup of opposing military and naval forces during the Third Cold War, China is virtually alone except for the nuclear proxies it created in Pakistan and North Korea. Opposite them is the United States and its allies like Japan and South Korea bound by defense treaties. Strategic partners like India, subjected to an intense Chinese military confrontation for decades and more precisely since April 2020, are now actively involved in QUAD.
China is emboldened in its confrontations during Cold War III, convinced that the Russian-Chinese strategic link is available as a reinforcement. But I have doubts whether Russia would support China in a full-fledged war with the United States. Russia can be expected to make all the appropriate geopolitical noises to support China, but it is questionable whether China would see Russian military forces fighting alongside it. It would be disastrous for Russia.
With China hyperactive in its Cold War 2.0 military confrontations and provocative military provocations across the Indo-Pacific region, from Japan to India to Australia, the next relevant question is whether the China may succumb to the temptation to start World War III of its own accord or through misperceptions of the United States’ unwillingness to militarily challenge China’s aggressive impulses from a “revisionist power.”
By any rational geopolitical co-relation of the balance of power and any rational strategic logic of China devoid of “natural allies”, China should not rationally nurture even the most distant ideas that it can worse the States- United and its allies, with NATO also now seized. with the Chinese threat, in any conflagration of World War III.
The Chinese economy has already slowed and is expected to decline further. In my 2001 article quoted above, I said, “Without the involvement of the United States in the Chinese economy, China’s economic growth could collapse. China is therefore not in a viable position to support a “second cold war” that it sought to generate in Asia-Pacific ”.
The United States is in the process of “decoupling” its trade relations and its involvement in the Chinese economy and the US-China trade wars unleashed by former President Trump can only intensify in direct proportion to the unbridled belligerence of the United States. China.
China, so economically besieged with the ensuing domestic political convulsions, faces yet another major provocation of unleashing a possible World War III to divert attention from national upheavals to a war that bends to Communist Chinese nationalism. revolving around President Xi Jinping’s “great Chinese dream”.
In conclusion, it should be emphasized that the global dynamics of security and stability today resemble Europe on the eve of World War II, as Hitler unleashed the peripheries of Germany and the Western powers were in an abject appeasement of Hitler. World War II could have been avoided if Western nations had abandoned “risk aversion” policies and if the United States had not intervened until 1939.
The United States and its allies and strategic partners like India can hardly afford to repeat 1939 in 2021. Communist China as a “revisionist nation” reminiscent of Hitler’s Germany defiantly threw its military gauntlet at the states United Western Pacific to the West and the Southern reaches of the Indian Ocean challenge global security and stability. It is high time that Communist China was checked and “contained” before pushing the “free world” into a possible third world war.