Hotter Today – Hunga Tonga Volcano – Michigan Weather Center
After cold morning temperatures, dry weather will continue through Sunday, with plenty of sunshine over much of southern Lower Michigan. The next chance for lake-effect flurries arrives late Sunday night through Monday evening, with light accumulations possible in areas near the lakeshore. Temperatures will be in the low 20s in the north and near 30s in all three southern counties.
We currently have 2° at 5:30 a.m. with clear skies. Yesterday we reached 21° after an early morning minimum of 5°.
Last year around this time we had below normal snowfall. I wrote on January 16, We will once again see the oddity that is snow in the state today. We’ve had 2.5 inches at Otsego so far for January and 8.2 inches since December 1. I thought last year was bad because we failed to hit 40 inches for the winter season. Like last year, we are dying in small steps with mediocre amounts of synoptic events and a lack of lake effect due to the lack of arctic air. We had a high temperature of 43° yesterday. We currently have rain and 34° at 7 a.m.
We’ve had 23 inches of snow this season long before the last two years. This year we had mostly lake effect with a few synoptic events where we haven’t had much lake effect in the last two years. We are losing ground as we haven’t had any notable precipitation since January 8th.
This is the Hunga Tonga volcano in the small island nation of Tonga in the western Pacific.
Tonga’s Hunga Tonga volcano has just experienced one of the most violent volcanic eruptions ever captured by satellite. pic.twitter.com/M2D2j52gNn
— US StormWatch (@US_Stormwatch) January 15, 2022
- Some lake effect still poised for Tonight/Monday The forecast generally remains unchanged with good continuity regarding the arrival of some snow showers for tonight and through much of Monday. We continue to think that we will not see significant accumulation by January standards. We will see mainly clear skies this morning, before mid and high clouds arrive through the day. Snow showers are expected to hold off pretty much until 00z or after for the NW areas, and later further South and East, if at all. It is at that time that an upper short wave arrives, and colder air at the surface. Most of the snow shower activity will be of the lake effect variety, as the upper trough runs into the storm system bringing the wintry weather to the srn and ern portions of the country. A bit of ridging aloft holds on over the area with the main low over the NE. Lake effect parameters are marginal with the 850 mb temps around -10C (delta t`s around the 13C threshold). Forecast soundings indicate that inversion heights will keep the top of the convective layer around 5k ft, even with the lake modified parcels. The flow will become mostly NNW, keeping the snow showers limited to the coast. We could see a couple of inches or so by the time things wind down later Monday for the favored NNW flow areas. We do not anticipate needing headlines for this event at this time. - Better chances for lake effect Wed through Fri with colder air We will see a break in the precipitation develop Monday night and last into Tuesday. Some light snow remains possible up along U.S.-10 in the warm air advection occurring ahead of the next incoming low that will track north of the area. Other than that though, not much precipitation until late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The cold front is expected to push through the area roughly between 06z and 12z on Wed. Good cold air advection will take place, and lake effect should get going by Wednesday afternoon as the over lake instability becomes sufficient. We will see a boost in the activity Wednesday evening and night as a well defined short wave approaches. The flow aloft then becomes cyclonic, and forecast soundings show modified inversion heights over 10k ft. The flow continues to look to be in a NNW orientation once again, favoring the lakeshore. Instability will be moderate to extreme with 850 mb temps dropping to around -20C. Conditions will become less favorable for good accumulations by Thursday morning as inversion heights drop a little behind the short wave, and the DGZ drops down to almost being below the cloud layer. This will produce a finer and small flake. We could see this event needing a headline eventually. The snow showers will then slowly taper off on Friday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists beyond Friday, with additional energy coming into the picture. Last night, it looked like the upper trough/cyclonic flow would move out and give the area a break. Now, there is another feature that will be in the region, and could bring some additional synoptic snow. One thing looks for sure though, and that is we will be colder for most of the next week.