Hotter Today – Hunga Tonga Volcano – Michigan Weather Center

After cold morning temperatures, dry weather will continue through Sunday, with plenty of sunshine over much of southern Lower Michigan. The next chance for lake-effect flurries arrives late Sunday night through Monday evening, with light accumulations possible in areas near the lakeshore. Temperatures will be in the low 20s in the north and near 30s in all three southern counties.

We currently have 2° at 5:30 a.m. with clear skies. Yesterday we reached 21° after an early morning minimum of 5°.

Temperatures will remain below normal for the rest of the month with precipitation at or below normal. The chance of precipitation this week remains in the 20 to 40 percentiles for the first half of the week.

Last year around this time we had below normal snowfall. I wrote on January 16, We will once again see the oddity that is snow in the state today. We’ve had 2.5 inches at Otsego so far for January and 8.2 inches since December 1. I thought last year was bad because we failed to hit 40 inches for the winter season. Like last year, we are dying in small steps with mediocre amounts of synoptic events and a lack of lake effect due to the lack of arctic air. We had a high temperature of 43° yesterday. We currently have rain and 34° at 7 a.m.

We’ve had 23 inches of snow this season long before the last two years. This year we had mostly lake effect with a few synoptic events where we haven’t had much lake effect in the last two years. We are losing ground as we haven’t had any notable precipitation since January 8th.

This is the Hunga Tonga volcano in the small island nation of Tonga in the western Pacific.

Forecast discussion

- Some lake effect still poised for Tonight/Monday

The forecast generally remains unchanged with good continuity
regarding the arrival of some snow showers for tonight and through
much of Monday. We continue to think that we will not see
significant accumulation by January standards.

We will see mainly clear skies this morning, before mid and high
clouds arrive through the day. Snow showers are expected to hold off
pretty much until 00z or after for the NW areas, and later further
South and East, if at all. It is at that time that an upper short
wave arrives, and colder air at the surface.

Most of the snow shower activity will be of the lake effect variety,
as the upper trough runs into the storm system bringing the wintry
weather to the srn and ern portions of the country. A bit of ridging
aloft holds on over the area with the main low over the NE. Lake
effect parameters are marginal with the 850 mb temps around -10C
(delta t`s around the 13C threshold). Forecast soundings indicate
that inversion heights will keep the top of the convective layer
around 5k ft, even with the lake modified parcels.

The flow will become mostly NNW, keeping the snow showers limited to
the coast. We could see a couple of inches or so by the time things
wind down later Monday for the favored NNW flow areas. We do not
anticipate needing headlines for this event at this time.

- Better chances for lake effect Wed through Fri with colder air

We will see a break in the precipitation develop Monday night and
last into Tuesday. Some light snow remains possible up along U.S.-10
in the warm air advection occurring ahead of the next incoming low
that will track north of the area. Other than that though, not much
precipitation until late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

The cold front is expected to push through the area roughly between
06z and 12z on Wed. Good cold air advection will take place, and
lake effect should get going by Wednesday afternoon as the over lake
instability becomes sufficient. We will see a boost in the activity
Wednesday evening and night as a well defined short wave approaches.
The flow aloft then becomes cyclonic, and forecast soundings show
modified inversion heights over 10k ft.

The flow continues to look to be in a NNW orientation once again,
favoring the lakeshore. Instability will be moderate to extreme with
850 mb temps dropping to around -20C. Conditions will become less
favorable for good accumulations by Thursday morning as inversion
heights drop a little behind the short wave, and the DGZ drops down
to almost being below the cloud layer. This will produce a finer and
small flake. We could see this event needing a headline
eventually. The snow showers will then slowly taper off on Friday.

Quite a bit of uncertainty exists beyond Friday, with additional
energy coming into the picture. Last night, it looked like the upper
trough/cyclonic flow would move out and give the area a break. Now,
there is another feature that will be in the region, and could bring
some additional synoptic snow. One thing looks for sure though, and
that is we will be colder for most of the next week.

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